On August 2, 2006, Elon Musk published “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me).” He concludes with:

“So, in short, the master plan is:

      1. Build sports car
      2. Use that money to build an affordable car
      3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
      4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

 Don’t tell anyone.”

Objective 1 was met.  The Tesla Roadster was built and delivered and I still drive one every day. Tesla lost a ton of money designing and building the car, so they discontinued it after selling about 2,450 Tesla Roadsters.

Tesla has only ever made luxury cars.  None of them could seriously be considered “affordable,” let alone “even more affordable.” Neither Tesla nor Elon Musk has put forward a plan to do anything about this. When Elon Musk was recently asked about a rumored $25,000 Model 2, he said there were no such plans.  Seventeen years later, objectives 2 & 3 are still not even close.

As to objective 4, Tesla bought Solar City in 2016, but their solar business has been in decline ever since, only accounting for a few percent of Tesla’s sales.

Elon Musk also said: “When someone buys the Tesla Roadster sports car, they are actually helping pay for development of the low cost family car.”  This didn’t happen.  The Roadsters never made any money to help pay for the development of a low cost family car.  And Tesla never tried to develop a low cost family car.

“Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster”.  I bought a Tesla Roadster in 2010.  I wrote a check for about $180,000.  I bought a Model S in 2012.  I wrote a check for over $100,000.  So much for affordable (or accurate) price estimates.  And even at these prices Tesla was always on the brink of bankruptcy.  Elon Musk had to raise billions of dollars from investors to keep Tesla afloat.

“The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy.”

Elon Musk’s huge cult following of 129 million Followers on Twitter derives substantially from his Followers belief that he is making a major contribution to CO2 reduction thereby saving the planet.

When only a few percent of the people in the world can afford a luxury Tesla electric car, nothing Tesla is doing can materially reduce CO2 emissions.

Only when an electric car is truly affordable for the majority of the people on earth will it be able to convert enough drivers off of internal combustion engines to make a difference.  Many companies are aiming for this market.  One of them might make a material reduction in CO2 emissions, but not luxury Tesla.

Do you think anyone would care much about Tesla or Elon Musk, if they knew his real Master Plan was: ‘I am going to make luxury electric cars to sell to the well-to-do, whose life style activities produce 10 times as much CO2 as the average person. Our product will enable them to feel good about themselves, despite producing excessive levels of CO2, and show everyone that they have done their part to save the planet.’

On July 20, 2016, ten years after the publication of the Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan, Elon Musk published “Master Plan, Part Deux.”  It begins:

“The first master plan I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn’t all that complicated and basically consisted of:

    1. Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
    2. Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
    3. Use that money to develop an affordable, high volume car

And…

    1. Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.”

He starts off by misstating the objectives in the first master plan, which he never even got close to completing, so that he can claim that they are “now in the final stages of completion.”

He brags “It wasn’t all that complicated.” To do what? Move the goalposts?

He even provides a link to the unmodified first Master Plan! I guess he is counting on no one clicking on that link and reading the original objectives.

He claims that these brand new, much easier, objectives have “literally been on our website for 10 years.”

At the end he sums up.

“So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

    • Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
    • Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
    • Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
    • Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it.”

Tesla is not even close to achieving any of these goals.

    1. Solar roofs have been problematic from day 1 and are only a tiny fraction of Tesla’s sales.
    2. Model S and Model X are low volume products. Tesla’s car line is now just 2 viable models Model Y and Model III, with Model III sales declining in all markets.
    3. Self-Driving is a disaster. According to one of Full Self-Driving’s greatest advocates it will “randomly try to kill you. This is a when not an it.” A dozen companies around the world are delivering full self-driving cars, while Tesla’s Full Self-Driving requires a driver to be alert at all time to prevent it from killing someone. Full Self-Driving makes critical driving errors 1,000 times more often than its competitors.
    4. No one is making money from their Tesla when they aren’t using it.

Four out of four failures, but no doubt, on March 1, 2023, when Elon Musk publishes his Master Plan Part 3, he will claim to have met all his objectives laid out in Master Plan Part Deux.

Then he will announce a new set of worthy goals that he will never achieve.

Will people see through him this time, or will they once again laud Master Scammer Musk for the awesome things he can’t do?